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亚洲可再生能源计划---生物质市场前景

2015/11/28 10:45:07      点击:

对亚洲市场生物质能潜力的预测已经成为木屑颗粒行业参与者之间的定期对话。尽管在过去的五年中有着超高的预测,大多数北美生产商得到的只是平庸的结果。正如欧洲,重要的是要区分开将炒作和事实,使投资者、生产商、贸易商以及供应链合作伙伴做出相应的计划。

Speculation on biomass potential in the Asian markets has become a regular conversation among wood pellet industry participants. And despite the wildly high forecasts over the past five years, most North American producers have experienced uninspired results. Just as with Europe, it is important to separate the hype from the facts, allowing investors, producers, traders and supply chain partners to plan accordingly.




近日,一组业内人士出席了美国颗粒工业协会会议(the U.S. Pellet Industrial Association conference)。每年,都有一组相似群体会出现在北美和欧洲的城市,参加阿格斯生物质大会(Argus Biomass)和加拿大木屑颗粒会议(Wood Pellet Association of Canada conferences),加上USIPA会议。虽然参与者走到一起的原因有多种,但高点之一是会议的市场前景展望。今年,在USIPA会议上,Hawkins Wright公司的John Bingham、国际纸浆造纸和生物能源等行业顾问提到了这一点。

Recently, a group of industry participants attended the U.S. Pellet Industrial Association conference. Every year, a similar group converges in cities in North America and Europe to attend Argus Biomass and the Wood Pellet Association of Canada conferences, in addition to USIPA. Although participants come together for a variety of reasons, one of the high points is the market outlook segments of the conferences. This year, at USIPA, John Bingham of Hawkins Wright, consultants to international pulp, paper and bioenergy industries, provided just that.


据Hawkins Wright所说,2015年世界各地的木屑颗粒工业需求超过1300万吨。虽然欧洲仍是最主要的消费,但韩国和日本联合目前占全球需求的16%。韩国的需求增长了7%,从与2014年190万吨增加到 2015年203万吨,在未来的五年里,预测增长到270万。最值得注意的是进口的急剧增加,接近300%。

According to Hawkins Wright, worldwide industrial demand for wood pellets in 2015 exceeded 13 million metric tons. Although Europe remains the leader, with the majority of consumption, South Korea and Japan combined now measure 16 percent of worldwide demand. South Korea demand rose 7 percent from 1.9 million metric tons in 2014 to 2.03 million metric tons in 2015, forecasting to grow to 2.7 million over the next five years. Most noteworthy was the sharp increase of imports, almost 300 percent.


虽然增速仍处于个位数,2012年可再生能源组合标准(RPS)有能力设定更令人印象深刻的增长。RPS要求在2022年前,电力生产容量超过500兆瓦,产生可再生能源总功率的10%,目前亚洲最大的生物质发电厂已达105兆瓦。总部设在韩国忠清南道(South Chungcheong),这个GS EPS公司的工程历时三年,花费2.54亿美元。目前,该生物质电厂的燃料来源于农业废弃物燃料,包括棕榈仁壳(PKS)。

Although the growth is still in single digits, the 2012 renewable portfolio standard (RPS) has the ability to set in motion more impressive growth. RPS requires power producers with a capacity greater than 500 MW to generate 10 percent of their total power from renewable energy by 2022. The largest Asian biomass power plant today stands at 105 MW. Based in the South Korean province of South Chungcheong, this GS EPS project took three years and $254 million to convert. Currently, this biomass plant is fueled by agricultural waste product including palm kernel shell (PKS).


显然,所有的增长不会都来自韩国,尽管可再生能源组合标准(RPS)。毕竟,根据麦肯锡公司(Mc Kinsey & Company)的分析,亚洲木屑颗粒生物质的需求预计2025年前每年将达到1000万吨。

Clearly, all the growth cannot be expected to come from South Korea, despite the RPS. After all, according to Mc Kinsey & Company analysis, the demand for wood pellet biomass in Asia is expected to reach 10 million tons per year by 2025.


2012年,日本还推出了一项新举措,以促进国家可再生能源的发展。在上网电价(FIT)系统提供了有着20年可再生能源预保费的发电机,在可再生能源20年预设的保费。这样一来,2025年前,日本的预期可再生能源装机容量近400GW,据市场研究公司全球数据(Global Data)的预测,在未来10年,累计增加容量从317.5GW到389.8GW(注:1GW=1000MW)。虽然大多数的装机容量预计来自于热力发电,预期是生物质能,风能和太阳能也将发挥关键作用。

In 2012, Japan also rolled out a new initiative to boost renewable energy growth in the country. The feed-in tariff (FIT) system provides generators with preset premiums on renewables for 20 years. As a result, Japan’s expected installed renewable energy capacity is almost 400 GW by 2025, according to a study from research firm Global Data that forecasts an increase in cumulative capacity from 317.5 to 389.8 GW over the next 10 years. Although the majority of installed capacity is expected to come from thermal generation, it is anticipated that biomass, wind and solar will also play a key role.


事实上,根据生物质工业社会网络(Biomass Industrial Society Network),在2014年80个木屑生物质发电项目获得批准,这些项目大部分是共燃工厂,将利用煤炭和木屑生物质颗粒。这将增加约3000万立方米生物质消耗量。

In fact, according to the Biomass Industrial Society Network, 80 wood biomass generation projects received approval in 2014. Most of these projects are cofire plants that will utilize coal and wood pellet biomass. This would increase the biomass consumption to approximately 30 million cubic meters.


尽管韩国和日本基于可再生能源组合标准(RPS)和上网电价(FIT)生成的预测,所有的目光都集中在中国,有超过二十年的高期望。据 高盛集团环境市场(Goldman Sachs environmental markets group)负责人Kyung-Ah Park说,在2013年,中国近一半的城市经历了酸雨,与去年同期相比雾霾增加了100%。作为世界上最大的温室气体排放国,中国计划2030年左右二氧化碳排放达到峰值,将自己定位成为清洁能源部署的领先者。

Despite the forecasts generated by RPS and FIT, in South Korea and Japan, all eyes are on China, with high expectations over the two decades. According to Kyung-Ah Park, head of Goldman Sachs environmental markets group, almost half of China’s cities experienced acid rain in 2013 and a 100 percent increase in days of haze, year over year. As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China has pledged to peak emissions by 2030. The country is positioning itself to be the leader in clean energy deployment.


高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)认为,中国将继续通过促进清洁能源的开发,包括核电,水电,风能,太阳能,生物质能,天然气等以减少一次能源消费中煤炭的作用,估计2020年会减少62%的煤炭使用。作为基荷发电,生物质能,是中国进一步加强可再生能源进程的一个可靠选择。

Goldman Sachs believes that China will continue to reduce the role of coal in its primary energy consumption by promoting the development of clean energy including nuclear power, hydro, wind, solar, biofuel and natural gas, with an estimated decline of coal use by 62 percent in 2020. As a baseload power, biomass stands to be a reliable option for China as it furthers its renewable agenda.


全球有超过300太瓦小时的生物质发电,东南亚电力生产每单位国内生产总值增长最快,生物质能前景惊人。虽然可能难以预料何时亚洲生物质消费量将超过欧洲,但很明显,这将会发生。

With over 300 terawatt hours of worldwide electricity generated by biomass today, and the highest growth of electricity production per unit of gross domestic product in Southeast Asia, the prospects for biomass are astonishing. Although it may be difficult to predict when Asia overtakes Europe in consumption of biomass, it’s clear that this will occur.


来源:Biomass Magazine